Thanks for the Old Year. Happy New Year 2016!

... this year's Christmas... may be their last - Pope Francis

Pope Francis sure does say a lot of strange things.

I don’t think that any other Pope throughout history has ever called Christmas a “charade” or has suggested that for many people this Christmas “may be their last”. What in the world would cause Pope Francis to adopt such an ominous tone? Without a doubt, the leader of the largest religious organization in the entire world would be privy to information that would not be available to ordinary people like you and I. Could it be possible that he is aware of something that is coming that is going to dramatically change life on this planet? What we do know is that our world is becoming increasingly unstable. World War III threatens to erupt in the Middle East at any time, the number of terror attacks around the globe continues to increase, earthquake activity continues to rise, giant cracks are opening up in the ground all over the world, and we are rapidly plunging into a brand new global financial crisis. There is certainly a lot to be concerned about, but what would make the Pope so glum that he would actually call Christmas a “charade”?

One of the primary reasons why the Pope is so down is all of the war that is going on all over the planet right now. It was in the context of talking about war that he made this recent statement about Christmas being “a charade”…

Pope Francis has declared in a sermon that Christmas this year will be a “charade” because “the whole world is at war”.

The pontiff’s speech at the Vatican came after terrorist attacks in France claimed the lives of 129 people; a Russian plane was bombed and dozens of people were killed in a double suicide attack in Lebanon.

Speaking during Mass at the Casa Santa Maria, he said: “We are close to Christmas. There will be lights, there will be parties, bright trees, even Nativity scenes – all decked out – while the world continues to wage war.”

“It’s all a charade. The world has not understood the way of peace. The whole world is at war.”

And what he has said is actually true. War and civil conflict are breaking out all over the planet, and all of this violence threatens to spiral out of control as we head into 2016.

On another occasion, Pope Francis even went so far as to suggest that we have now entered a third world war…

“Even today, after the second failure of another world war, perhaps one can speak of a third war, one fought piecemeal, with crimes, massacres, destruction.”

So has World War III begun?

I don’t know that I would go that far, but I believe that we are certainly on the road toward it.

The recent statements from Pope Francis that I have already shared with you are bizarre enough, but then just a few days ago he addedthis whopper to the list…

The Pontiff, who turned 79 on Thursday, elaborated on his views this weekend, telling a crowd, “While the world starves, burns, and descends further into chaos, we should realise that this year’s Christmas celebrations for those who choose to celebrate it may be their last”.

What in the world did he mean by that?

Precisely who was he talking about when he said that “it may be their last” Christmas?

That statement can be taken a lot of different ways, and it has raised a lot of eyebrows. And of course this is just the most recent example of this Pope doing and saying some very unusual things. Just consider what we have seen over the past couple of years…

The Daily Sheeple

Pope sends condolences to families of victims of religious violence in Philippines

Is this in Philippine mainstream media?

(Vatican Radio) Reiterating his appeal to all believers to reject violence in the name of God, Pope Francis has sent his condolences to the families of those killed on the island of Mindanao in the Southern Philippines.

The killings were perpetrated by a breakaway Muslim rebel group who killed nine Christian civilians in a series of attack on Christmas eve.

The Pope’s prayers for the families of the victims and his appeal for dialogue, tolerance and peace came in a telegramme signed by Vatican Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin and addressed to the Apostolic Nuncio in the Philippines.     

Please find below the full text of the telegramme:

The Most Reverend Giuseppe Pinto
Apostolic Nuncio in the Philippines MANILA

The Holy Father was deeply saddened to learn of the senseless killing of innocent people in Mindanao, and he sends condolences to the families of those who lost their lives.  His Holiness prays that security and safety will be established for all people in the region, so that dialogue, tolerance and peace may enable each person to live free from fear.  He asks all believers to reject violence in the name of God who is love, and invokes abundant divine gifts of consolation, mercy and strength upon those affected by this tragedy.

                            Cardinal Pietro Parolin
                            Secretary of State

(from Vatican Radio)

Washington Post: Scientists claimed they found elusive ‘Planet X.’ Doubting astronomers are in an uproar

The antennas of the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) under the northern Chilean sky. Researchers using the ALMA say they have found two mysterious large objects at the outskirts of the solar system.  (Rex Features via AP Images)

It’s a big, dark presence at the farthest reaches of our solar system, a mysterious force powerful enough to skew the paths of planets in orbit and yet so subtle that it slips undetected past even the most powerful telescopes on Earth. For centuries, it has eluded some of the most brilliant minds in astronomy — some say it even destroyed one. It’s the subject of endless calculations and rampant speculation, crackpot theories and countless hours spent gazing, fruitlessly, at the night sky.

It’s known as Planet X.

And on Tuesday, a group of astronomers said they’d found not just one such presence, but two of them.

“ALMA discovers the most distant object of the solar system,” read the title of one paper uploaded to the research-sharing site arXiv. “The serendipitous discovery of a possible new solar system object with ALMA,” went the other.

Using the Atacama large millimeter/submillimeter array (ALMA), a powerful telescope located in the high desert of Chile, the researchers said they’d come across two extremely large objects skimming through the outskirts of the solar system.

Though both studies were submitted to the prestigious journal Astronomy & Astrophysics, neither has been peer-reviewed or formally published — steps that are par for the course with any kind of serious scientific research but especially when pronouncements of previously unknown planets are at stake. They’re both based on limited observations — just two spottings apiece for each odd object. And even after just 48 hours online, they have garnered a great deal of skepticism within the astronomy community.

But the researchers say they posted their papers with exactly that purpose.

“We specifically wanted to reach the community that could tell us if we overlooked something, in which case we fully intend to withdraw the papers,” Wouter Vlemmings, an astronomer at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden and co-author on both studies, told Scientific American.

Here’s what Vlemmings and his colleague say they found:

A large rocky something they call “Gna” (for a fast-moving Nordic messenger goddess, one of the authors told Scientific American), that could be an asteroid-type object roughly the size of Ireland zooming around somewhere near Uranus. Alternatively, the researchers propose, it could be an undiscovered planet floating much farther out, or even a brown-dwarf (bigger than a planet, smaller than a star) passing through interstellar space.

Also, a mysterious, unnamed object that appears in the sky close to the alpha centauri system that may be a “Super-Earth” planet far beyond even Pluto or a super-cool brown dwarf that’s really far. It could also conceivably be an icy “trans Neptunian object,” of which there are plenty in the frozen darkness past the eighth planet, but the researchers say that’s less likely (it’s also, not coincidentally, less interesting).

All of which sounds pretty cool — unless you’re Mike Brown, a Cal Tech astronomer who has spent the majority of his careers scanning the farthest reaches of the solar system for just these kinds of objects.

Brown, the self-proclaimed “Pluto killer” who discovered a trans-Neptunian object (big things out past Neptune) that helped dethrone the erstwhile ninth planet back in 2005, would be thrilled to find the long-sought Planet X. He’d be almost as happy to see a paper reporting that other researchers had found it.

But these two papers, he said, are not that.

“The logical leaps are sort of astounding,” he said. “What they really saw they saw is a little blip and then six months later another little blip.”

The evidence that the researchers offer for their findings is too scanty, Brown said, and the probability that they could have stumbled across a huge, planet-like object in a tiny patch of sky is too small. Finding Planet X in the small field of vision they studied with the ALMA telescope, he said, “would be like scooping a cup full of water from the ocean and pulling out the white whale.”

Several other astronomers offered similar commentary in the days after the papers’ initial publication.

Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer with the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, told Gizmodo it was a “considerable stretch” to claim a outer solar system object had been found based on the information in the reports. There could be problems with the ALMA instruments or other explanations for the “blips” that form the basis of the reports, he said.

This may be a classic case of “we should have waited for the referees’ report before going on arXiv,” he said.

“There’s so many reasons why they can’t possibly be correct,” Brown said. “It’s embarrassing to the field.”

That’s because of Planet X’s “long and sordid history,” as Brown put it. Though the notion of a ninth planet of some kind at the outer edge of the solar system is perfectly legitimate — scientists have long seen it as an explanation for irregularities in the orbits of Uranus and Neptune — it’s been plagued by false hope and unfounded “discoveries.” One 19th century researcher claimed that the planet was a star he was studying and “lost” (really he just lost track of it). Another claimed there must be as many as three planets out beyond Neptune, though he provided no evidence for his conjectures.

But no Planet X researcher was more beleaguered than Percival Lowell, who launched into the search for the distant object in an attempt to redeem himself after he became a laughing stock for suggesting that aliens might be building canals on Mars.

Little did he know that Planet X was no place to find redemption.

Lowell spent years photographing the night sky with nothing more than a primitive camera and borrowed telescope, searching for evidence of a planet whose existence was still only a theory. He died of a stroke in 1916, his search unsuccessful. A lifelong friend said that the failure “virtually killed him.”

But Lowell didn’t fail — at least, not totally. Unknown to him, Lowell actually captured a large, distant object twice in his photographs. We now call that object Pluto.

Pluto would become “Planet X” a decade later, when a farm kid named Clyde Tombaugh working at the Flagstaff, Ariz., laboratory that Lowell founded came across a small moving speck in his own photos of the sky. “That’s it!” he recalled exclaiming.

And for about 80 years, that was it. Until Brown and his fellow astronomers came along and took the title away from poor Pluto.

Meanwhile, modern analysis of the trajectories of our most far-flung space craft — things like the Voyager and Pioneer probes — has found no evidence of gravitational influence of the kind that could be attributed to a distant planet, at least not as early astronomers envisioned it.

Still, the search for Planet X has continued.

“For those of us who actually work on this, it’s embarrassing to even say you might be looking for these sort of things in the outer solar system because there have been so many crazy theories,” Brown said.

So when reports like the two arXiv studies come out, “you worry that when someone finally finds something that’s not crazy, people are going to say ‘Oh, I heard that story three months ago and it’s not real.'”

But Brown may not need to be so concerned. After all, two centuries of failure has not stopped astronomers from scanning the distant corners of our solar neighborhood, bit by bit, searching for something out there that resembles the rock we call home.

Interest in Planet X is plain to see. Even if the planet itself isn’t. - The Washington Post

Use of US passport might doom Poe bid

“The ballot cannot override the constitutional and statutory requirements for qualifications and disqualifications of candidates... When a person not qualified is voted and eventually garners the highest number of votes, even the will of the electorate expressed through the ballot cannot cure the defect in the qualification of the candidate,” read the ruling

Using passport might doom Poe bid

Use of her US passport might doom the presidential bid of Sen. Grace Poe.

In deciding Poe’s appeal against her disqualification, the Supreme Court (SC) may consider a September ruling upholding the disqualification of a candidate for mayor in the 2013 elections who was found to have used his US passport in his travels after renouncing his US citizenship.

A source said justices might consider applying to Poe’s case their basis for upholding the disqualification of Kauswagan, Lanao del Norte Mayor Rommel Arnado in the 2013 elections over his American citizenship.

Poe’s camp is expected to file a petition on Monday contesting the Commission on Elections (Comelec) ruling earlier this week disqualifying her from the presidential race due to questions on her citizenship and residency.

“Only natural-born Filipinos who owe total and undivided allegiance to the Republic of the Philippines could run for and hold elective public office,” the SC ruling in September read.

The source said that while the high court is on holiday recess, justices have been doing research on the matter considering its urgency.

Chief Justice Ma. Lourdes Sereno said the justices recognize the need for them to act on urgent cases even while the SC is on break given the limited time left for the Comelec for election preparations.

Under election laws, Poe only has five days from disqualification to secure a temporary restraining order from the SC, or her name would not be included in ballots to be printed in January.

“There’s a striking similarity in both cases (Arnado and Poe) – both running for public office after renouncing foreign citizenship. But there are also differences, so we will just see,” the source told The STAR.

In the ruling on the Arnado case penned by Associate Justice Mariano del Castillo, the SC upheld the disqualification of the mayor for using his American passport in several trips even after renouncing his US citizenship in 2009 to run for mayor in the May 2010 polls.

“The circumstances surrounding the qualification of Arnado to run for public office during the May 20, 2010 and May 13, 2013 elections, to reiterate for emphasis, are the same,” the source said.

“Arnado’s use of his US passport in 2009 invalidated his oath of renunciation, resulting in his disqualification to run for mayor of Kauswagan in the 2010 election,” the source added.

“Since then and up to the time he filed his COC (certificate of candidacy) for the 2013 elections, Arnado had not cured the defect in his qualification,” the SC said in its September ruling.

The high tribunal held that the use of a foreign passport after renouncing one’s foreign citizenship “is a positive and voluntary act of representation as to one’s nationality and citizenship” and “does not divest one of the reacquired Filipino citizenship but recants the Oath of Renunciation required to qualify one to run for an elective position.”

“When Arnado used his US passport just 11 days after he renounced his US citizenship, he recanted his Oath of Renunciation that he ‘absolutely and perpetually renounce(s) all allegiance and fidelity to the United States of America’ and that he ‘divest(s) (him)self of full employment of all civil and political rights and privileges of the United States of America,’” the ruling read.

“This act of using a foreign passport after renouncing his foreign citizenship is fatal to Arnado’s bid for public office, as it effectively imposed on him a disqualification to run for an elective local position,” it stressed.

In its April 2013 ruling on a similar case against Arnado, the SC stressed that even his victory in the election could not cure his ineligibility, adding that popularity should not precede the constitutional requirements for elections.

“The ballot cannot override the constitutional and statutory requirements for qualifications and disqualifications of candidates... When a person not qualified is voted and eventually garners the highest number of votes, even the will of the electorate expressed through the ballot cannot cure the defect in the qualification of the candidate,” read the ruling. - Edu Punay, Philstar

Grabeng mga anomalya na naman sa kapitolyo ng Marinduque ang naganap sa 2014 ayon sa COA

Marinduque: Total Disallowances na umabot na sa P 100-M, hindi dokumentadong mga transaksyon na umabot na sa P 47-M, Non-existent Gasoline and Oil Inventory na P 4-M, Uncollected Loans Receivables na P 4-M, Uncollected Marcopper Tax on Siltation and Decant System na P 19-M,  at lumobo na ang 20% Development Fund sa P 142,578,663.34 (2014) na hindi ginagamit para sa kapakanan ng bayan - COA

COA Official Website. Ang Audit Report ay makikita dito.

Ayon sa COA 2014 Annual Audit Report tungkol sa Province of Marinduque may pagkakaiba o hindi magkatugmang mga balanse sa Property, Plant and Equipment sa libro kung ihahambing sa Report on the Physical Count of Property, Plant and Equipment dahil sa kapabayaan ng Provincial Accounting Office at Provincial General Services Office na paghambingin ang kanilang mga tala nang naaayon sa Section 114 ng Manual on New Government Accounting System. Kadudaduda, ayon sa COA, ang nakatalang balance sa PPE account na P 325,921,032.74.

Kasama ang mga sumusunod sa obserbasyon at rekomendasyon sa audit ng Provincial Government sa CY 2014:

1. Accounts payable na nagkakahalaga ng P 47,786,171.30 ay HINDI DOKUMENTADO kaya't kaduda-duda ang katotohanan ng mga transaksyon o kung ang mga ito ay naganap nga.

Dagdag pa rito, P 19,356,437.02 ng total PAYABLES na matagal ng OUTSTANDING sa libro, mula dalawa hanggang sampung taon o higit pa, ay hindi naman ibinalik sa unappropriated surplus.

2. Mga Loans Receivables na ang halaga ay P 3,701,931.39 ay nanatiling uncollected pagtapos ng taon at nadagdagan pa ng P 633,209.35 o 21% dahil sa hindi pagiging istrikto ng Provincial Treasurer na kolektahin ang amortization mula sa grantees at kakulangan ng monitoring ng report mula sa Provincial Agriculturist.

3. Gasoline, Oil and Lubrication Inventory na nagkakahalaga ng P 3,955,404.51 o 16.88% ng total inventory account ay non-existing, kayat kaduda-duda at hindi kapanipaniwala ang account balance na inilahad sa financial statements. 

4. Repair and maintenance expenditures sa mga sasakyan na may halagang P 2,695,177.26 at P 2,950,463.93 para sa CY 2013 at CY 2014, ay masasabing napakamalabis na gastusin.

5. Interest Expense na nagkakahalaga ng P 2,011,2467.29 ay isinama sa loans payable account na may kinalaman sa undelivered equipment ng Aztec Construction Equipment and Services, Inc. na may total na P 52,823,880.98 kahit pa mayroon ng naipasang Writ of Preliminary Injunction sa Land Bank of the Philippines, kayat sinobrahan (overstated) ang interest expense at interest payable accounts ng may ganun ding halaga.

6. Ang Head of Operation ng Motor Pool at kanyang mga empleyado ay nagpasya na ang grader na nagkakahalaga ng P 2,828,000.00 ay naging depektibo sa panahong covered pa ito ng warranty subalit hindi ito naireport, at walang pagkilos na isinagawang pakikipag-ugnayan sa warranty security, kayat hindi naprotektahan ang interest ng pamahalaan o taxpayers.

     

7. Ang suma-total ng hindi nagagamit na balanse mula sa 20% Development Fund ay lumobo na sa P 142,578,663.34 kung ikukumpara sa unutilized balance noong CY 2013 na nagkakahalaga ng P 105,933,256.93.

Sa usaping ito ay inulit ng COA ang kanilang rekomendasyon noong nakaraang taon pa:

a) Na dapat ang 20% Development Fund ay ginagamit ng lubos para sa mga priority programs/projects at mga aktibidad, para sa kapakinabangan ng mga pinaglilingkuran o nang LGU mismo, na naaayon sa mga probisyon ng DILG-DBM Joint Memorandum Circular No. 2011-1 dated April 13, 2011, at

b) Dapat isakatuparan kaagad ang mga programa at proyekto na may kinalaman sa unutilized balance na P 142,578,663.34 na naaayon sa Annual Investment Plan. Ang Provincial Development Council ay dapat i-review ang mga proyektong hindi ipinapatupad at simulang amendahan o i-realign ang mga proyekto sa mga bagay na higit na kailangan ng mga nasasakupan na aaprubahan ng Executive Committee at inaprubahan naman ng Sangguniang Panlalawigan.

8. Sa likod ng pabor na desisyon ng Korte Suprema sa ilalim ng G.R. No. 170532 dated April 30, 2009, ay hindi pa rin kinokolekta ng lalawigan ang Real Property Tax (RPT) Delinquency totalling P 18,925,974.04 ng MARCOPPER MINING CORPORATION (MMC) sa Siltation and Decant System at sa lupa na kinatitirikan ng estruktura.

Ang mga nasa itaas, kasama na ang iba pang obserbasyon at mga rekomendasyon ng COA ay nakadetalye sa Part II ng Report.  

Unsettled Disallowances

Mula sa total audit disallowances na P 16,865,500.19 na nasa Notices of Finality of Decision, ang halagang P 751,581.25 o 4.46% pa lamang ang naayos sa taong ito, at ito ay paglabag sa Item 5.4 ng COA Circular No. 2009-006 dated September 15, 2009.

Gayundin, ang total disallowances na inaapela ay umabot na sa P 99,348,731.51 as of December 31, 2014.  

TYPHOON NONA | Bleak Christmas looms with widespread power outage

Bagyong Onyok next?

While typhoon Nona is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday, another weather disturbance may also enter PAR on the same day.

Quitlong said the low pressure area near Caroline Islands has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression which will be named Onyok as soon as it enters PAR (see image at bottom of page).

In the end, NonaPH's path was like this as tracked by Boac Typhoon Tracking System posted by @Pongkoy Maccabeus Manrique

Tattered lanterns, festive lights and tin roofs littered towns in Southern Luzon and the Visayas after Typhoon Nona (international name Melor) swept through, killing at least four people and leaving millions of people without electricity.

It toppled trees and cut power to at least seven provinces, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said.

Distraught survivors surveyed their damaged homes on the eve of the traditional nine-day Christmas vigil that Filipinos observe with dawn masses and rice cakes.

Christmas is the most celebrated holiday in the Philippines, where 80 percent of its 100 million people are Catholic, and decorations such as colorful lights and lanterns have already been put up in most towns.

Electric posts lean precariously at Buenavista, Marinduque.
Photo: Paul Laster

Sad, dark Christmas
"It will be a very sad Christmas and a dark one because we have no power. But the important thing is everyone around me is still moving," 54-year-old rice farmer Noemi Pesigan told Agence France-Presse.

The typhoon blew out the windows of Pesigan's two-storey brick and wood house in Bulan, a small farming town about 350 kilometers southeast of Manila, and she survived the storm by sheltering in a nearby shop.

The typhoon tore in off the Pacific Ocean on Monday afternoon and hit farming and fishing communities in the eastern Philippines with winds of up to 185 kilometers (115 miles) an hour.

Flying debris killed a man in Northern Samar, national disaster agency spokeswoman Mina Marasigan told AFP, without being able to confirm three other fatalities.

The typhoon weakened slightly as it cut across the central islands of the archipelago, but on Tuesday afternoon its wind gusts were still reaching 170 kilometers an hour as it passed over the island of Mindoro.

It was due to move out into the South China Sea on Tuesday afternoon.

Early evacuation, no electricity
In Bicol, a vast region in the east often hit by typhoons, authorities credited the early evacuation of 720,000 people for what they believed would be a low death toll.

"We have zero floods, zero deaths, zero casualties," Joey Salceda, governor of Albay province, said.

But he added that the entire province of 1.2 million people was without power.

"What we are asking for is the early restoration of electricity," he said.

Residents of neighboring Sorsogon, which takes in Bulan town, were also without power on Tuesday, and authorities could give no guarantees if electricity would be restored by Christmas.

One person died of hypothermia while two others drowned in floods in the poor fishing town of Catarman in Northern Samar province in the Visayas region south of Manila, municipal disaster officer Jonathan Baldo said in a radio interview.

The storm made its fifth landfall over Pinamalayan, Oriental Mindoro around 10 a.m. and is expected to cross the island before heading to the West Philippine Sea in the afternoon.

Nona packed maximum sustained winds of 140 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 170 kph, as it moved west at 15 kph.

Earlier, Pagasa said Nona, which made landfall over Romblon early Tuesday morning, is expected to weaken as it crosses the Mindoro landmass and interacts with cold winds beought by the northeast monsoon.

The storm is expected to exit Philippine area of responsibility by Friday as a low pressure area.

How NonaPH and incoming tropical depression "Onyok" looks as of today, December 16.
Infrared photo: JMA

Damage to airports
The Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) thru the Operations Rescue and Coordinating Center (ORCC) reported that Catarman Airport sustained structural damaged brought about the typhoon.

Area Center VIII Area Manager Mr. Danilo Abareta said that, as of 8:00am on Tuesday, among the heavily damaged airport facilities were the Fire Station Building, Terminal Building, whose roof was blown away by strong winds, the CAAP staff house, three guard posts, while partially damaged were the Flight Services Station Tower, Air Navigation Service Powerhouse, weather instruments, various signage and parts of the perimeter fence.

Abareta added that power and communication lines are down in the area of Catarman while other airports under Area Center Vlll comprising Daniel Z. Romualdez Airport in Tacloaban, Ormoc, Calbayog, Catbalogan, Catarman, Borongan, Biliran, Guiuan, Hilongos, and Maasin in Leyte sustained minor damage.

He added that expect normal commercial operation is expected to commence in these airports as soon as weather improves and clearing operations are done.

Typhoon Nona also caused damage to Area Center V airports namely: Legaspi, Naga, Masbate, Virac, Sorsogon, Bulan and Daet airport in Camarines Norte.

Area Center V Manager Ms. Cynthia Tumanut said that, after clearing operations, weather permitting, all commercial operations will commence. Full story on InterAksyon

Typhoon NonaPH "in the vicinity of Gasan, Marinduque" by tomorrow morning Dec. 15

From PAGASA DOST
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #9
FOR: TYPHOON “NONA”
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING

ISSUED AT 11:00 AM, 14 DECEMBER 2015
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today)

Location of eye/center: At 10:00 AM today, Dec. 14, the eye of Typhoon “NONA” was located based on all available data including Guiuan and Virac Doppler Radars at 85 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar (12.6°N, 125.4°E).

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and 
gustiness of up to 185 kph.

Forecast Movement:Forecast to move West at 17 kph.

Forecast Positions: 

•24 hour (tomorrow morning, December 15): 

In the vicinity of Gasan, Marinduque

•48 hour (Wednesday morning): 200 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro
•72 hour (Thursday morning): 260 km West of Coron, Palawan
•96 hour (Friday morning): 370 km West of Puerto Princesa City, 
Palawan
•120 hour (Saturday morning): 735 km West Southwest of Puerto 
Princesa City, Palawan (Outside PAR)

PSWS 3(121-170 kph Expected in 18hrs.)
Luzon: Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon and Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands.

Visayas: Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar and Biliran

PSWS 2 (61-120kph Expected in 24 hrs.)
Luzon: Camarines Norte, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna and Southern Quezon.

Visayas: Leyte.

PSWS 1 (30-60kph Expected in 36 hrs.)
Luzon: Metro Manila, Bataan, Bulacan, Lubang Island, Coron, Cavite, Rizal, Rest of Quezon including Polillo Island.

Visayas: Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu including Bantayan and 
Camotes Islands, Aklan, Capiz, Northern Negros Occidental and 
Northern Iloilo.

Mindanao: Dinagat province and Siargao Island.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

Typhoon Melor/NonaPH

From AccuWeather:

Melor, also known as Nona in the Philippines, continues to barrel toward the Philippines, where it will slam onshore with damaging winds and flooding rain early this week.

Residents should be rushing to complete the necessary precautions to protect lives and property.

Melor rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on Sunday evening, local time.

However, the typhoon began to weaken as it approached the Philippines and encountered drier air early Monday morning. While Melor will not slam onshore as a super typhoon as once feared, it still poses dangers to lives and property.

Melor will track over or dangerously close to the northern coast of Samar Island before barreling into southernmost Luzon Island on Monday.

Powerful winds in excess of 160 km/h (100 mph) threatens to cause widespread destruction in southernmost Luzon and along the northern coast of Samar. This includes Sorsogon City and Legazpi City.

Near and north of Melor's center, the eastern coast of southern Luzon will be subject to an inundating storm surge.

"Melor is a very compact typhoon, so that will prevent its most devastating impacts from extending too far from its center," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty. Winds in excess of 115 km/h (73 mph) extend only 55 km (35 miles) away from Melor's center.

Wind gusts higher than 130 km/h to target remainder of southern Luzon to Mindoro

Melor will continue to weaken as it crosses the central Philippines on Monday night into Tuesday. However, damaging wind gusts higher than 130 km/h (80 mph) will target the remainder of southern Luzon to Mindoro.

Rainfall amounts could top 300 mm (12 inches) in the central Philippines, especially across the higher terrain. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are a serious concern.

Also potentially in the crosshairs is Manila, the capital of the Philippines. While strong winds will bypass the city, heavy rainfall will be a possibility.

"There is the potential for 100-150 mm (4-6 inches) of rain to cause flooding in Manila Tuesday into Wednesday," stated Douty. "The city may even escape these totals if it passes far enough to the south."

24-hour earthquake progression across west Pacific - Japan at center; Ash eruptions at Mt. Kanlaon

A noticeable progression of earthquakes centering around Japan has occurred over the past 24 hours (up to 1045pm CT 12/12/2015).

The movement appears to be centered around North Japan at the border of Kamchatka Russia.

Seen in the graphic below, a large displacement is taking place from the far Southwest Pacific (Indonesia) across Taiwan, Japan, Kamchatka Russia / Kuril Islands, finally terminating in the Aleutian islands of Alaska.

The earthquakes on each “side” of the movement are both M4.4 events, with a direct line measurement of 6,616 miles (10,647km) between both points.

This graphic from google Earth shows the direct line measurement in miles, clearly the whole West Pacific showed movement in just 1 days time.

Between both points across the West Pacific we see that a progression of M4.4, M4.5 earthquakes struck almost equidistantly spaced — growing in magnitude around the region of North Japan / Kamchatka Russia.

[The actual distance of the plate boundary in question is much greater than 6,600 miles due to the bending of the plate boundary — if we’re being precise about the movement, the distance should include 500-800 miles if you count the small twists and turns the faults make going from Indonesia to Alaska.]

This could be pointing towards a larger Pacific event in the near term if the pressure does not transfer elsewhere to release. Full story on Dutchsinse

Negros’ Mt. Kanlaon is the highest peak in Central Visayas.
(Photo by: Maximus Jovi)

Ash eruptions seen in Mt Kanlaon on Sunday morning – Phivolcs

Traces of ash were observed in some villages near Mt. Kanlaon, after “low-energy” ash eruptions were recorded anew on Sunday morning, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) reported.

The ash eruptions were observed at 09:51 a.m. and 10:08 a.m. Sunday that lasted for five and six minutes, respectively.

Mt. Kanlaon’s recent activities generated light-gray to grayish cloud of ash reaching a height of 200-300 meters, which then drifted southwest.

Phivolcs said seismic signals were not recorded accompanying this event.

However, traces of ashes were reported on the western slope of the volcano, particularly at Sitio Bais and Brgy. Yubo on La Carlota City in Negros Oriental.

Traces of ash were also observed on the southwestern slope of Mt. Kanlaon, particularly on Brgy. Sag-ang, La Castellana, also in Negros Oriental.

Alert Level 1 remains, which means that the volcano is at an abnormal condition and is in a period of current unrest. - Manila Bulletin

TYPHOON MELOR (NONA)

13 December 2015 from AccuWeather:

Satellite image of Melor as it strengthened Saturday. (Image/NOAA).

Melor is expected to make landfall in the central Philippines Monday night or Tuesday.

Wind gusts at landfall could reach 185 km/h (115 mph), with the highest gusts confined to areas right along the coast.

While Melor's ultimate track will dictate the system's impact on the nation of around 100 million people, current indications are that it could make landfall near or over southern Luzon, the country's largest and most populous island, early next week.

After landfall, the storm may slow down as it tracks westward across the Philippines. This slower movement could prolong heavy rain in some areas.

Rainfall amounts could top 300 mm (12 inches) in some areas, especially across the higher terrain. How much rain falls will be partially determined by how fast the storm moves across the Philippines.

Also potentially in the crosshairs is Manila, the capital of the Philippines. While wind from the storm should not be nearly as strong as where it makes landfall in southern Luzon, heavy rainfall will be a possibility.

On the other hand, if the storm takes a track a bit farther to the south, the heavy rain and gusty winds would remain south of Manila.

"While the system will be strong upon reaching the Philippines, it certainly won't be the strongest system that has hit the area this year," Duffey said.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #6  from PAGASA AT 6:00 PM 13 December 2015

 Movement and Intensification 10-13 Dec 2015

Weather Advisory: Typhoon Nona / Tropical Cyclone Melor (as tracked by Boracaystories.com)

Typhoon Nonoy, 10 December 2015

The PAGASA is monitoring a low pressure area (LPA) that may move into the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by the weekend.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) weather forecasters said the LPA is still outside the PAR and was spotted some 2,275 kilometers east of Mindanao. There is high likelihood it will enter the PAR by Friday or Saturday.

Since it is still over the ocean, there is a high chance for it to intensify into a tropical cyclone. When it enters the PAR, it will then be called Typhoon Nonoy, the 14th tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines in 2015. That's a low number, by the way, considering the country gets 20 or so, on average, per year.

At this time of the year, most of the tropical cyclones pass over Visayas and Mindanao because of the presence of the northeast monsoon in Luzon, which influences the movement of the tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Nonoy
As at 10:00 AM, Friday, 11 December 2015

According to PAGASA:

"At 10:00 am today, the center of a Tropical Depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) was estimated based on all available data at 1440 km east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (8.7°N, 139.4°E) with maximum winds of 55 kph near the center. It is forecast to move west northwest at 20 kph."

So it is still a ways off ... but it's coming.

The depression could still intensify into a tropical cyclone while it remains in open ocean over the Pacific. Its trajectory may lead to landfall over Bicol or the Eastern Visayas region.

Despite the approaching typhoon, Boracay had a wonderful sunset earlier (11 December 2015).


Typhoon Nonoy / Tropical Cyclone Melor
As at 5:00 PM, Friday, 11 December 2015

The tropical depression just outside the PAR has now intensified enough to become a tropical cyclone. Its international name is now Tropical Cyclone Melor, and when it enters the PAR, it will be known locally as Typhoon Nonoy.

Melor's last estimated position was at 1,240 kilometers East of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur.

It was packing maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph, and moving west northwest at 25 kph. It could intensify some more as it moves over the Pacific Ocean.

It is now estimated to enter PAR on Saturday, and possibly make landfall over Eastern Visayas or the Bicol Region.

A little bit of history:

When Typhoon Nonoy officially becomes a named typhoon, it will be the first time ever in Philippine history that the country shall have had named typhoons for all the twelve months of 2015, from January to December. Yes, the first time ever!

Only once before -- in the 1960s -- did we have named typhoons for eleven months, from January to November.

This tidbit of history comes from Western Pacific Weather.


Typhoon Nona / Tropical Cyclone Melor
As at 10:00 AM, Saturday, 12 December 2015

Tropical Cyclone Melor has entered the PAR and is now officially named ... Typhoon Nona! A sudden name/sex change!

Typhoon Nona was last monitored at 1,025 km East of Maasin City, Southern Leyte. It has maintained wind strength, at maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.

However, its forward velocity has slowed down from 25 kph to 17 kph, moving West Northwest.

Here's how PAGASA's tracking sees it:

Forecast Positions:

By Sunday morning, 13 December -- 605 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar

By Monday morning, 14 December -- 350 km East of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon

By Tuesday morning, 15 December -- In the vicinity of Virac, Catanduanes

By Wednesday morning, 16 December -- 55 km Northeast of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro

By Thursday morning, 17 December -- 195 km West of Calapan City

So Boracay may get some rains around Tuesday or Wednesday, in time for the Misa de Gallo.

Typhoon Nona / Tropical Cyclone Melor

It's 8:30 PM (12 December), but there's been no update from PAGASA on Typhoon Nona (the former Nonoy). So what happened? Why did they suddenly change the typhoon's name from Nonoy to Nona?

According to PAGASA staff, the original name was really meant to be, because Nonoy is included in PAGASA’s official list of names for tropical cyclones within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Indeed, three typhoon advisories had already been issued for Typhoon Nonoy.

But just as the typhoon entered PAR, PAGASA "higher-ups" reportedly decided to change its name to Nona, because Nonoy sound too much like the nickname of the current president, Noynoy Aquino. 

Sounds reasonable, yes? We don't want our president to be associated with a typhoon.

It has been done before. Really? Yes, because the official typhoon name would sound too much like a president's name!

In 2006, PAGASA was about to designate a tropical cyclone, according to its official list of names, Typhoon Gloria. In fact, Gloria had been used in 2002.

But there was no having it a second time. Not when the president at the time was already four years plus in power! So PAGASA "retired" the name Gloria and used Typhoon Glenda instead.

By the way, PAGASA "retires" a name when the typhoon linked to it has caused at least 300 deaths or P1-billion worth of damage in crops and infrastructure.

Typhoon Nona / Tropical Cyclone Melor
As at 10:00 PM, Saturday, 12 December 2015

Typhoon Nona gained some strength as it moves closer to the Philippine landmass. It now packs maximum sustained winds of 85 kph near the center with gustiness of up to 100 kph.

Its last location is estimated to be 665 kilometers East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar. It is still moving West Northwest at 19 kph. At this rate, it is expected to make landfall around late Tuesday or early Wednesday, probably in the Bicol region.

Forecast Positions:
By Sunday evening, 13 December -- 495 km East of Legazpi City, Albay

By Monday evening, 14 December -- 60 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes

By Tuesday evening, 15 December -- In the vicinity of Lucena City, Quezon

By Wednesday evening, 16 December -- 235 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro

By Thursday evening, 17 December -- 495 km West of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro

No Public Storm Warning signal has been raised yet, but Signal No 1 could be raised over Bicol region and the Samar provinces Sunday morning.

There's no storm signal raised in Aklan and Boracay yet. But it's already overcast in Boracay. No sunset for today.


Authorities have likened Nona's expected rainfall to those of typhoon "Monang" and tropical storm "Seniang."

Seniang dumped rains of 15 millimeters (0.6 inches) of rain per hour over Mindanao last December 2014.


Typhoon Nona / Tropical Cyclone Melor
As at 10:00 AM, Sunday, 13 December 2015

Typhoon Nona has continued to gain strength as it approaches the Samar-Bicol area. It is now packing maximum sustained winds of 110 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 140 kph.

At this time, the typhoon's center was located at 565 km East of Catarman, Samar. It was moving West Northwest at 19 kph.

Public Storm Warning Signal No. 1 has been raised over 
Luzon -- Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon and Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands 

Visayas -- Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte and Southern Leyte

Mindanao -- Dinagat Province

Here's a look at PAGASA's tracking forecast:

Going by the projected path and the 300-km diameter influence zone, the effects of the typhoon on Aklan will be most felt around 15 December 2015.

But it will make landfall first in Samar-Bicol, on Monday. And probably bring heavy rains.

In preparation for that, the governor of Albay Province has ordered the suspension of classes in all levels. The Albay Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (PDRRMC) has begun preparations to address any emergencies that may arise.

According to DILG CODIX's Facebook account, these are the affected areas of typhoon Nona.

The alert level for Aklan is within "400 Diameter from the forecast track".